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Entry Log
Every letter and postcard we've sent via Lob

📐 The EV Model

Expected value per entry is the core metric. We want EV significantly above our cost per letter (~$0.87).

Formula: EV = (Prize Value × 0.70 tax factor) ÷ Estimated AMOE Entries − $0.87 cost

The 0.70 tax factor accounts for federal + state taxes on prize winnings. Real after-tax value is typically 60–75% of ARV depending on prize type and tax bracket.

📊 EV Reference Table

Prize ARV500 AMOE1,000 AMOE3,000 AMOE10,000 AMOE
$1,000 $0.53 −$0.17 −$0.64 −$0.80
$5,000 $6.13 $2.63 $0.30 −$0.52
$10,000 $13.13 $6.13 $1.46 −$0.17
$25,000 $34.13 $16.63 $4.96 $0.88
$50,000 $69.13 $34.13 $10.80 $2.63

⚡ The AMOE Arbitrage

Most people don't bother with mail-in entries. AMOE entries are typically 0.5–3% of online entries for the same sweepstakes — purely because of friction.

A sweepstakes with 100,000 online entries might receive 500–3,000 AMOE entries. We're competing with retirees with stamps, not the internet.

The more widely promoted the sweepstakes is online, the more AMOE entries too. Best targets: mid-profile brand sweepstakes — not PCH, not tiny local contests.
🧮 EV Calculator
Expected Value per Entry
$6.13
✅ Strong positive EV — worth entering

✅ Good Target Criteria

  • Prize $5,000+ — minimum for meaningful EV
  • Has AMOE option — mail address in official rules
  • No "handwritten only" restriction — or silent on it (gray area)
  • No "no mechanically reproduced entries" — or we rely on KabirRegular to satisfy intent
  • Multiple entries allowed (daily/weekly) — compound our edge
  • National but not mega-viral — enough profile to matter, not so big AMOE floods
  • Brand sweepstakes (not influencer giveaways, not PCH)

⚠️ The Handwriting Rule Problem

Many sweepstakes say "no mechanically reproduced entries." Our Lob-printed letters could technically violate this.

However:

  • The rule targets photocopying the same entry 1,000 times, not unique printed letters
  • KabirRegular font is a handwriting-style font — letters look hand-done
  • Many sweepstakes don't have this restriction at all
  • We can target sweepstakes that are silent on printing vs. those that explicitly prohibit it
  • Alternative: enter a handwriting font with more glyph variance (Kabir is working on this)

See Font Lab tab to evaluate current font quality.

📦 Operations Model

  1. Scrape sources daily for new AMOE sweepstakes
  2. Check official rules — verify AMOE, prize value, handwriting rules
  3. Add to contest DB with deadline + mail address
  4. Generate Lob letter/postcard with KabirRegular font
  5. Send via Lob API, log entry
  6. Monitor carecirclellc@gmail.com for win notifications
Font Lab — KabirRegular
Evaluate handwriting font quality for AMOE entries
Live Preview
Size: 20px
The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog.
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz
1234567890 !@#$%&*()
Sample Entry Card
Craig dos Santos
1311 Park St
Alameda, CA 94501
(510) 555-0100
carecirclellc@gmail.com
Evaluation Checklist
VERDICT
Check boxes above to evaluate
📝 Font Notes & Upgrade Plan
Current Font

KabirRegular — created via Calligraphr from Kabir's handwriting template. Installed at ~/Library/Fonts/.

The Problem

Basic Calligraphr fonts have one glyph per character — meaning every "e" looks identical. Real handwriting has variance.

Upgrade Path

Calligraphr Pro allows multiple alternates per glyph — OpenType features swap between them. This creates much more realistic variance.

💡 Kabir's plan: Create a higher-end font with glyph alternates. Until then, KabirRegular should still work for sweepstakes that don't explicitly require handwritten (vs. just printed) entries.
Log Entry